State experts anticipate an active summer for air quality alerts with recurring ozone and wildfire smoke events
As Minnesotans statewide look forward to another summer enjoying time spent outdoors, meteorologists with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) are predicting an active air quality season with conditions similar to those seen in 2024. This year’s outlook highlights air quality concerns related to wildfire smoke and ozone, especially during periods of hot, sunny weather.
“Minnesotans rely on timely, accurate, science-based forecasts to plan their days and protect their health,” said MPCA Meteorologist Matt Taraldsen. “We want to give people the information they need to make smart choices — whether it’s rescheduling a run, protecting a child with asthma, or delaying the backyard chores. This summer, conditions are lining up for several air quality alert days, so staying ‘air-aware’ is more important than ever.”
Wildfire smoke outlook
- Between 12 and 16 days of wildfire smoke impacts are expected in Minnesota this summer, local fire activity may become elevated.
- With a strong El Niño southern oscillation cycle, expect warmer and drier conditions this summer punctuated with storms.
- Smoke from wildfires can contain fine particles that pose health risks, even for healthy individuals.
Ozone and drought conditions
- Forecast models predict four to six days this summer where ozone levels may be unhealthy for sensitive groups. This is slightly above Minnesota’s historical average.
- The highest risk areas include the Twin Cities suburbs and parts of southeastern Minnesota near Rochester.
- Drought and below-average rainfall are expected to lead to more sunny days, creating favorable conditions for ozone to form.
- Sensitive groups, including children, older adults, and people with heart or lung conditions, should plan outdoor activities carefully on high ozone days.
Stay safe
- Breathing wildfire smoke can affect everyone’s health, but sensitive groups like older adults, all children under 18, pregnant people, and those with heart or lung conditions face higher risks.
- Outdoor workers and people who participate in vigorous outdoor exercise are also at higher risk for adverse health reactions.
- Learn what each Air Quality Index or AQI color means so you can protect yourself and those around you.
- When air quality is unhealthy, stay indoors with windows and doors closed and filter the air.
- If you must go outside when air quality is unhealthy, try to limit or reduce outdoor activity, especially exercise.
- Have a backup indoor location or an alternate date for outdoor events in case of poor air quality.
- Take care of yourself and others. Monitor sensitive groups (and your furry friends) for health impacts.
Stay informed
- Minnesotans can sign up for air quality alerts and check daily forecasts at the MPCA AQI forecast webpage for a daily discussion of statewide conditions. Updates and alerts are also posted on Facebook and X (@MPCA_AQI).
- Air quality alerts are also released on MPCA Instagram, Facebook, X, and Nextdoor pages.
The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) has created guidance to help schools and childcare staff determine when and how to plan for and adjust outdoor physical activities when air quality starts to reach unhealthy levels. The Minnesota Outdoor Air Quality Guidance for Schools and Child Care is now available in both English and Spanish. Each school and childcare center can use the tool to make informed decisions about safe outdoor activity for students.