MPCA meteorologists predict an active summer for air quality, with recurring ozone and wildfire smoke events
As Minnesotans prepare for another summer of outdoor activities, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) meteorologists are forecasting a moderately active air quality season. While not expected to be extreme, this year’s outlook includes air quality concerns related to ozone and wildfire smoke, especially during periods of dry, sunny weather.
“Minnesotans rely on accurate, science-based forecasts to plan their days and protect their health,” said Matt Taraldsen, MPCA meteorologist. “We want to give people the information they need to make smart choices — whether it’s rescheduling a run, protecting a child with asthma, or delaying the backyard chores. This summer, conditions are lining up for several air quality alert days, so staying ‘air-aware’ is more important than ever.”
Starting in 2025, the MPCA will issue alerts for PM10, a type of pollution commonly caused by blowing dust. This change follows a significant dust event in October 2024 that created very unhealthy air conditions in parts of the state. These new alerts will better protect public health during similar events, which are expected to occur about once every two years. The MPCA is also expanding its communication efforts with a new MN AQI Facebook page, where forecasts, alerts, and live updates during major air quality events will now be posted.
The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) has created guidance to help schools and child care staff determine when and how to adjust outdoor physical activities when air quality starts to reach unhealthy levels. The Minnesota Outdoor Air Quality Guidance for Schools and Child Care is optional. Each school and child care center can use the tool when deciding to balance healthy outdoor activities that keep children active against the potential harms of poor air quality.
Ozone and drought conditions
- Forecast models predict four to seven days this summer where ozone levels may be unhealthy for sensitive groups. This is slightly above Minnesota’s historical average.
- The highest risk areas include the Twin Cities suburbs and parts of southeastern Minnesota near Rochester.
- Drought and below-average rainfall are expected to lead to more sunny days, creating favorable conditions for ozone to form.
- Sensitive groups, including children, older adults, and people with heart or lung conditions, should plan outdoor activities carefully on high ozone days.
Wildfire smoke outlook
- Between 12 and 16 days of wildfire smoke impacts are expected in Minnesota this summer.
- Drought-stressed vegetation across the region and elevated wildfire activity in Canada contribute to the risk.
- A neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern may lead to more variable wind patterns, increasing the likelihood that smoke will reach Minnesota.
- Smoke from wildfires can contain fine particles that pose health risks, even for healthy individuals.
Stay informed
- Minnesotans can sign up for air quality alerts and check daily forecasts at the MPCA AQI forecast webpage for a daily discussion of statewide conditions.
- Updates and alerts are also posted on the new Facebook page and X (@MPCA_AQI).
- The latest Air We Breathe report provides high-level data on Minnesota’s overall air quality and examines sources of air pollution associated with potential health risks.