Climate Change: Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota
Under Minnesota statute (Minn. Stat. § 216H.07, subd. 3), the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) is obligated to report on statewide progress toward the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals enumerated in the Next Generation Energy Act (Minn. Stat. § 216H.02). The Next Generation Energy Act established the following GHG reduction goals: 15 percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2015; 30 percent reduction by 2025; and 80 percent reduction by 2050.
Emissions are estimated for all years from 1970 to 2008. Emissions are grouped in the agricultural, commercial, electric generation, industrial, residential, transportation, and waste sectors, and into major activity groups by energy use and fuel production, agricultural process, industrial process, and waste management emissions.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Minnesota by Economic Sector
Statewide GHG emissions increased by an estimated 51.5 million CO2-equivalent tons between 1970 and 2008, to a total of 159.5 million CO2-equivalent tons, 48 percent higher than emissions in 1970. Total emissions in the baseline year, 2005, were an estimated 161.3 million CO2-equivalent tons.
Between 1970 and 2008, the majority of the growth in estimated statewide GHG emissions occurred in just two sectors: the electric power sector and the transportation sector. Emissions from transportation and electric power generation comprised roughly 41 percent of all Minnesota GHG emissions in 1970, and, by 2008, they accounted for 60 percent, more than doubling in absolute terms.
Electric Generation Sector
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Electric Generation Sector in Minnesota
Emissions from electric generation have risen at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent between 1970 and 1988, and 1.5 percent per year between 1988 and 2008. Since 2000, emissions from electricity generation have increased about three percent, rising at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent per year.
Between 2005 and 2008, total GHG emissions from the electric sector decreased 2.1 million CO2-equivalent tons. Emissions associated with energy produced outside of the state increased by 1.4 million CO2-equivalent tons as emissions from in-state generation have decreased.
Transportation Sector
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation Sector in Minnesota
In 2008, GHG emissions from transportation were an estimated 39.7 million CO2-equivalent tons, not quite double 1970 emissions. Between 2005 and 2008, total transportation emissions decreased by 2.6 million CO2-equivalent tons.
Progress to Meeting Next Generation Energy Act Goals
- Statewide GHG emissions totaled 161.3 million CO2-equivalent tons in the baseline year, 2005, falling to 159.5 million CO2-equivalent tons in 2008.
Tracking Progress on Minnesota Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Indicators and Explanation of Trends
Measures of emission intensity are useful in understanding what has or has not happened and why. It is common to express emissions in relation to total population, household numbers, economic output, total energy consumption and other social and economic indicators of interest. The trend in emissions in relation to each of these indicators is shown in the figure below as a factor increase above 1970 levels of emission intensity.
Indicators of Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity
The figure below summarizes the trend from 1970 to 2008 in GHG emissions as a factor increase compared to 1970 levels, along with parallel trends for state economic output (real gross state output), GHG emission intensity, energy efficiency, and real energy prices. Real energy prices peaked in 1981, remained at high levels through 1985, and then declined to the late 1990s. After 1998, real energy prices began a slow climb. Energy use efficiency declined rapidly, 1970-1985, stabilized from 1985-1998, then resumed its earlier pattern of decline. GHG emission intensity followed a similar pattern. Real economic output showed an inverse pattern, growing slowly through 1983, accelerating from 1983 to 1997, and then slowing after 1997.
Minnesota Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Emissions Intensity, Economy, and Real Energy Prices
Full Report
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 1970-2008 (p-gen4-08) (January 2012). A report on statewide progress toward greenhouse gas reduction goals enumerated in the Next Generation Energy Act, including a summary of emissions by economic sector and by major activities, with long term trends and social and economic indicators. - Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 1970-2006 (p-gen4-05) (June 2009). A report on statewide progress toward greenhouse gas reduction goals enumerated in the Next Generation Energy Act, including a summary of emissions by economic sector and by major activities, with long term trends and social and economic indicators.
- Data Summary for Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Minnesota: 1970-2006 (p-gen4-06) . This spreadsheet contains the summarized data for all years from 1970 through 2006 that was used in the report. Keys for organizing the data into the same economic sectors and activities as in the report are included. It is important to note that the numbers in this spreadsheet and subsequent iteration of the analysis are subject to change if methods or original data are updated. (Posted October 2, 2009)
