http://www.pca.state.mn.us/

tinyURL : enzqfb7 | ID : 47Home   >   Air   >   Monitoring and Reporting   >   Air Emissions, Modeling and Monitoring   >   Air Emissions Risk Analysis (AERA)

main content

Air Emissions Risk Analysis (AERA) —
Qualitative Information


The qualitative analysis is designed to provide supplementary information to the quantitative Risk Assessment Screening Spreadsheet (RASS) and Q/CHI spreadsheet results. MPCA staff consider making preliminary determinations and recommendations regarding a facility based on those results as well as the rest of the Air Emissions Risk Analysis (AERA) information. A complete AERA includes both the quantitative and qualitative analysis of a project, regardless of the quantitative estimate of risk.

Some of the information described in the qualitative table may be compiled by a project proposer for other permits or reviews, in particular Environmental Assessment Worksheets. When information requested for an AERA process has already been generated, copies of that material may be substituted for or supplement the suggested submittals in this guidance.

It should be recognized that the MPCA cannot anticipate every potential project scenario or environmental impact; hence the analysis described here may miss potentially relevant information.

Qualitative Issues to Consider in an Air Emissions Risk Analysis

The information below summarizes some of the qualitative issues considered in an AERA. The table describes the supplemental information sought, who will generate the information, how it might be developed and included within a project proposer's AERA, and how the MPCA will use the qualitative information.  Examples maps are also provided.  The table is not designed to be an exhaustive list and thus the AERA Guidance document should still be the primary source for instruction. 

Buffer distances or radii:

  • Stack height less than 50 meters: 1.5 kilometers  (approximately one mile)
  • Stack height between 50 and 100 meters: 3 kilometers  (approximately two miles)
  • Stack height greater than 100 meters: 10 kilometers  (approximately six miles)

Zoning and land use maps should be based on a 10 kilometer radius, regardless of stack height.  If zoning information only exists for a city, township, or county - that may be provided instead of 10 kilometer radius information.  MPCA recognizes that some areas of the state do not have zoning information available.

Maps

Qualitative Section

Who Does It?

How it is done

Rationale and Resources

Site Setting

Project Proposer

Provide information such as population, and population density available.  Maps or general description information can be provided.
Can provide an estimate of the number of people who live in the vicinity of the facility, which is necessary to estimate population exposures. 

U.S. Census Bureau Exit to Web
MN Census Quick Facts Exit to Web
U.S. Census Quick Facts Exit to Web

Receptors and Sensitive Populations
PDF Document Example

Project proposer

Map showing residences, schools, daycares, recreation centers/playgrounds, nursing homes, hospitals within appropriate distance from the facility.  Lists may be needed for supplemental information.  

This information could help demonstrate that a facility with a borderline risk estimate is not a significant threat, e.g., few receptors, no apparent sensitive receptors.  Alternately, the presence of more sensitive receptors would lead to relatively greater potential impacts.

Land Use
PDF Document Example

Project Proposer

Map showing “current and reasonable potential” land use surrounding facility. Supplement with relevant ordinances that would inform potential exposures, e.g. raising chickens in town.
Land use includes, but is not limited to farming, forests, residential and industrial areas.  It is recommended to verify information with a site visit.

If no map is provided, MPCA will assume the most restrictive land use. 

MN County Land Use Maps Exit to Web
MN Land Use and Cover Exit to Web
USGS Exit to Web

Zoning
PDF Document Example

Project Proposer

Map and/or description of zoning.

Zoning maps are searchable on the internet for most counties in Minnesota - use your preferred search engine to find “MN zoning maps”

Nearby Facilities
PDF Document Example

Project Proposer

Map and/or list of facilities with air emissions within appropriate radius of the facility.  This is not limited to facilities with air permits.

Provides general awareness of potential impact from nearby contributing sources. 

MN Environmental Data Access
What’s In My Neighborhood?

Fishable Water Bodies

Project Proposer

Map with labels of fishable water bodies.  Information on accessibility to water body should be provided when available. 

Lake Finder Exit to Web

Farming Locations

Project Proposer

Map showing farming locations surrounding facility.  Additional information regarding crop types, animals raised, number of animals, farm size, and other qualitative information about the farm can be provided when available.

MN County Land Use Maps Exit to Web

Risk Isopleths Example Project Proposer Maps can be generated using AERMOD when using the Q/CHI methodology.  Maps can be produced for each exposure time and scenario, e.g. Acute Inhalation, by overlaying the risk isopleths with an aerial photograph of the area.

Chemicals

Qualitative Section

Who Does It?

How it is done

Rationale and Resources

Criteria Pollutants

Project Proposer

Spreadsheet compares AAQS to “High first High” modeled concentrations.  This has typically been required for air toxics evaluations.

Provides additional information when hazard indexes are near one. 

PM2.5

Project proposer

Updated guidance on PM2.5 is now available allowing for direct PM2.5 emissions to be considered in the AERA.

PDF Document Estimating PM2.5 Emissions for AERA’s

Mercury

Project proposer, MPCA EAO staff, MPCA mercury coordinator

Project proposers for sources identified in MPCA’s guidelines for new expanding sources of mercury air emissions must identify mercury inputs to and environmental releases from their facility/processes.  If fishable water bodies are within a 3 km radius of the facility (when stacks are < 100 meters), information submitted by proposer will be weighed to decide whether a focused analysis should be conducted to assess risks from consuming fish.

Over 80% of lakes assessed in Minnesota are considered impaired due to mercury contamination; consumption of mercury-contaminated fish can be harmful to people and wildlife. 

Surrogate health benchmarks as Risk Drivers

Project proposer,
MPCA EAO,
MDH

Surrogates are labeled in the RASS.  Project proposer may seek to further refine or speciated composition of mixtures with surrogates to apply IHB more selectively.  MDH may develop IHB for the mixture (e.g., MDH may recommend using IHBs for other petroleum mixtures in Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon guide). 

Use of surrogates to evaluate mixtures provides a rapid method of assessing emissions, and allows resources to be focused where necessary (only on potential risk drivers). Use of surrogates may help identify chemicals for which MDH could develop new IHBs.

Sensitizers

MPCA EAO staff

Chemicals in this category are noted in the RASS (RiskCalcs and Chem wo IHB pages).  May be considered along with quantitative information. 

Provides potentially important information to public (previously sensitized individuals may benefit from this information). 

Developmental Toxicants

MPCA EAO staff

Chemicals are labeled in RASS if they are developmental toxicants. The acute IHB for these chemicals are “ceiling values”, and EO staff note if these chemicals are predicted to exceed its IHB in the analysis.  

Developmental effects are serious and irreversible; acute benchmarks should be considered not-to-be exceeded ceiling concentrations since exposures to concentrations above the HRV/REL will increase the likelihood of damage. 

Chemicals lacking health benchmarks

MPCA EAO  staff, MDH

EO staff review list of chemicals emitted (emissions not quantified).  Using professional judgment/new information, EO and /or MDH staff may indicate a significant issue. 

MPCA is responsible for environmental protection, and needs to leave open the door for unforeseen chemical issues that may arise.  These chemicals will have evidence of potentially significant risk. 

Facility

Qualitative Section

Who Does It?

How it is done

Rationale and Resources

Emergency Internal Combustion Engines

Project proposer

Project proposer provides information on AERA-04 (AERA Emergency Internal Combustion Engines). 

NOx emissions can show elevated acute hazard indices from internal combustion engines (including natural gas); short-term exposure to NOx at high concentrations can trigger asthma attacks in pre-disposed individuals.

Percent Mass Assessed

Project proposer

Project proposer inputs mass of HAPs and VOCs emitted from the facility into RASS, which automatically calculates percent of VOCs assessed.

Aids in elucidating completeness of quantitative risk estimates. If a very small percent of toxics mass emitted is assessed, qualitative factors may become more important to MPCA’s preliminary determination. Project proposer may seek MPCA guidance on what additional effort may be needed to further evaluate toxics, or more effort to reduce exposure may be appropriate.

Accidental Releases

MPCA EAO  Staff

MPCA staff query the Incident Management System to generate a list of facility reports of startup, shutdown and malfunction events from last 5 years. This is merely a report of incidence, not a quantification of emissions.  If applicable, this will be answered in the AERA Impact Analysis Form

Release represents exposure to some unknown level of risk.   Frequent releases indicate an operation that may be more likely to have future releases that are not being considered in the risk evaluation.  Especially important if developmental toxicants with ceiling concentrations are emitted.  Frequent breakdowns could be brought to the attention of the project proposer for explanation, and whether it’s being fixed in project proposal.

State and federal requirements

Project proposer, MPCA permitting staff

MPCA reviews project proposer’s analysis of whether emissions unit has an applicable standard.  MPCA permitting staff may also provide guidance on whether more effective control measures are available.

If an emissions unit does not have an applicable standard, or the standard appears to be insufficient, the project proposer prepares an analysis of technical, economic feasibility of additional pollution control equipment.

Idling Truck Emissions Project proposer Project proposer indicates if there is the possibility that emissions from diesel trucks idling on the facility property may be equivalent or greater than 2 or more trucks idling continuously for an hour or longer on the facility property. If yes please briefly describe the conditions under which trucks idle on the property, the maximum number of trucks expected to be idling on the property at the same time, for how long, and approximate distance to the maximally impacted receptor. Also describe any proposed diesel emission reduction steps, such as steps described in an idling prevention plan or the use of retrofitted equipment. This question, if answered yes, serves as a prompt for further consideration but does not automatically imply the need for further quantitative analysis. Under certain circumstances idling trucks can produce enough NO2 to be a risk driver for acute respiratory effects and enough diesel particulate matter to be a risk driver for chronic respiratory effects.

Analysis

Qualitative Section

Who Does it?

How it is done

Rationale and Resources

Toxicity Endpoints

Project proposer,
MPCA EAO staff

If HI is above one, MPCA may consider if the HI should be divided into target organ-specific Hazard Indexes.  Project proposer must seek guidance from MPCA EAO before staff will accept and review endpoint derivation.  Future guidance documents will provide more direct instruction.

 Calculating hazard indices by endpoint is appropriate but is a more refined analysis than initial screening

Conservativeness of Quantitative Assessment

MPCA EAO  staff

Environmental Outcomes staff will prepare a subjective assessment as to the overall conservativeness of the submittal.  Factors considered can include emissions estimates, dispersion modeling, toxicity assessment, other.  

Provides for interpreting the meaning of results and potential for impacts.

Monitored Ambient Air

MPCA EAO staff

Environmental Outcomes staff will be notified and asked for: maximum and average criteria pollutant and air toxic concentrations from monitors. A standard report will be produced of all pollutant concentrations monitored at representative station(s).  Some professional judgment will be used.

This information may be requested by the public (or perhaps already known by the public if the pollutant is a common one, e.g., benzene).  Important information for MPCA to consider if pre-existing concentrations of chemicals proposed to be emitted are already at levels of concern.

Who to Contact

Risk Assessment

Last modified on November 02, 2012 12:03